RBA--

The RBA is a totally different story... as we talked about in yesterday's commentary, the RBA is much stricter with their monetary policy, the Australian economy has yet to enter a full recession, and I am not expecting to hear any announcements from the RBA about quantitative easing, forced currency devaluation, or alarming rhetoric. Those are all very good things for the AUD.
 As bullish as I am on the AUD/USD, tonight's rate decision is not without its risks... based on my research it appears most economists and market participants are expecting the RBA to hold rates steady at 3.25%, which is still historically low for the bank. At their last meeting the RBA held rates and said they wanted to see how economic conditions in Oz evolve. Well, they have deteriorated a bit since then and I believe there is a good probability the RBA cuts rates by 25bps.
 The other risk for the AUD is potential negative rhetoric or a negative outlook from the RBA. Over the longer-term view, I'm bullish on the AUD and I believe there is excellent upside potential for the AUD/USD. Because of the risks and the potential for a surprise cut, I will not attempt to pre-position myself in the market with an AUD/USD trade. The pair has been in a fairly tight range and for the sake of good risk management, I'd rather be patient and wait to see what the RBA does and says, then make my moves accordingly.
 Taking a trade prior to the event or convincing myself the RBA will hold rates even though I know there's a chance they could cut would not be a smart thing to do... it's pure speculation. Even this commentary is just my best guesstimate but should I take a trade on the pair after the announcement I will be glad to let traders know what I'm doing in the market with the AUD/USD